sea level rise – Page 3 – Southern Fried Science

Science in the Fleet: What would your hometown look like with 80 meters Sea Level Rise

October 16, 2013April 29, 2014 Andrew Thaler 33 Comments

UPDATE: These posts, and the hashtag are getting a lot of attention, so I’d like to reiterate, Caveat Tweetor (twitter beware) — these models are being generated on the fly as request come in. They are not validated and there are many variables that influence sea level rise which are not taken into account. This is a fun way to visualize potential sea level rise but it would be inadvisable to use it for real estate speculation.

The central conceit in the world of Fleet–my dystopian maritime science fiction serial adventure–is that sea level has risen 80 meters, an extreme maximum projection under global climate change prediction (INSERT LINK TO USGS DATA HERE AFTER SHUTDOWN ENDS – UPDATE: Oh, neat, we have a federal government again. Here’s the source). Since 80 meters is pretty hard to visualize, I turned to Google Earth to help me simulate what our world would look like under those conditions, starting with my new residence in San Francisco:

Oh, but we’re not done yet.

Sick of fictional mermaid documentaries? Try some dystopian maritime science fiction, instead!

September 2, 2013October 27, 2013 Andrew Thaler 4 Comments

Popular Culture

Welcome to the Fleet! It’s the near future, the rising tides have swallowed much of the world’s coastlines, and the last survivors of a deadly plague are scattered across a new and vastly different ocean. But all is not well in the Reach. The fish are dwindling, the currents are shifting, and secrets long thought … Read More “Sick of fictional mermaid documentaries? Try some dystopian maritime science fiction, instead!” »

Sea Leveler Update: one week of #sealevelrise

April 13, 2013October 28, 2013 Andrew Thaler

Now that most of the bugs are out of the system, here is what a one week readout looks like on the Sea Leveler. A few observations: The Sea Leveler is driven by twitter’s own search API, which is not perfect. The rapid dramatic drops are due to twitter updating its search parameters to exclude … Read More “Sea Leveler Update: one week of #sealevelrise” »

Sea Leveler Update

March 29, 2013October 28, 2013 Andrew Thaler

Earlier this week I launched the Sea Leveler, and open-source, arduino-powered, water level meter that measure the activity of tweets about #sealevelrise on twitter. Not surprisingly, the first full week of trial revealed a few bugs in the machine. The first thing you’ll notice is that, in addition to recording tweets about sea level rise, … Read More “Sea Leveler Update” »

Watch Blue Pints Episode 2: Sea Level Rise, Seafood Fraud, Shipwrecked Aliens, and more!

June 28, 2012October 27, 2013 Andrew Thaler

Uncategorized

Watch Episode 2 here:

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijPEW7x93N0

Understanding Sea Level Rise: Why a linear extrapolation is the least reasonable predictor of future changes

June 14, 2012June 18, 2012 Andrew Thaler 2 Comments

Conservation, Science

The Division of Coastal Management shall be the only State agency authorized to develop rates of sea-level rise and shall do so only at the request of the Commission. These rates shall only be determined using historical data, and these data shall be limited to the time period following the year 1900. Rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated linearly to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise.

source (emphasis mine)

This is the text of the notorious, anti-science, anti-coastal community bill that was originally floated in the North Carolina state senate. A revised version of that bill is now under review, with new language that now mandates that:

The Commission and the Division of Coastal Management may collaborate with other State agencies, boards, commissions, other public entities, or institutions when defining sea-level rise or developing rates of sea-level rise. These rates shall be determined using statistically significant, peer-reviewed historical data generated using generally accepted scientific and statistical techniques. Historic rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise unless such rates are from statistically significant, peer-reviewed data and are consistent with historic trends.

source (emphasis mine)

While this new language is almost certainly an improvement over the old bill, which was heavily supported by a lobbying group for coastal developers and heavily opposed by organizations that actually care what happens to the Carolina coastline and its historic communities, it is still problematic. By problematic, I mean wrong. And by wrong I mean that by refusing to allow accelerated estimates of sea level rise, it explicitly ignores all the best available science and contradicts 130 millenia of historic precedent.

North Carolina’s attempted ban on sea level rise is a boon for Global Draining researchers

May 31, 2012May 31, 2012 Andrew Thaler 4 Comments

Science

News broke yesterday that NC-20, a lobbying group for coastal development that, among other things, thinks property owners should be allowed to dump chemical waste directly into our watersheds, is sponsoring legislation that would outlaw outlaw sea level rise. Ignoring the fact that you can’t actually sue the ocean, what they’re actually promoting is a law that would prevent the state from using any sea surface model that extrapolates future ocean trends using anything but a linear regression. Essentially, they’re making it illegal for the state to anticipate future changes to the coastline, plan and prepare for potential flooding, or restrict development on transient barrier islands.

10 misrepresentations about climate change

October 3, 2011October 2, 2011 David Shiffman 146 Comments

Science

Few scientific fields generate as much controversy as climate change. Misunderstandings, misrepresentations, and outright lies are common. While environmentalists rightly criticize anti-global warming activists for not being truthful, neither side is innocent. Presented here are five common misrepresentations from both sides and the truth about those issues.

A primer for climate change

July 24, 2011July 24, 2011 Andrew Thaler 69 Comments

Conservation, Science

Sea level rise. Desertification. Ocean acidification. Climategate. Permafrost. Greenland ice sheet. Hockey stick. The language of global climate change can be overwhelming. Every year, as we learn more about the ways that human activity fundamentally alter global processes, the subject becomes even broader and more complicated. Fortunately, world renowned oceanographer Orrin Pilkey and his son, Keith Pilkey, have produced a comprehensive and readable primer on global climate change. The strength of Global Climate Change: A Primer can be broken into three sections – the content, the conflict, and the illustrations.

Weekly dose of TED – Greg Stone: Saving the ocean one island at a time

February 25, 2011 Andrew Thaler

Uncategorized

Kiribati is perhaps one of the most remote countries in the world. Despite its distance from the sources of environmental degradation, it will probably be the very first country to be destroyed by climate change. Most of the country, a collection of small islands spanning an area almost as large as the United States, lies … Read More “Weekly dose of TED – Greg Stone: Saving the ocean one island at a time” »